Months following the rapid rebel offensive led by Islamists that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria continues to be a nation in crisis. The recently formed transitional administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is facing increasing security issues, with violent opposition from remaining Assad supporters. Although the breakdown of Assad’s repressive government was a significant milestone in Syria’s 13-year civil war, achieving lasting peace and stability is turning out to be extremely complex.
The interim government, primarily made up of individuals who gained influence from opposition areas such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a nation left divided and ravaged by prolonged conflict. The elimination of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has led to the displacement of countless former regime members and supporters. A significant number of these individuals have declined to accept the new government’s authority, contributing to instability that jeopardizes the delicate administration.
A persistent danger from Assad supporters
A lingering threat from Assad loyalists
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research body, has cautioned that Assad loyalists may constitute some of the most proficient insurgent groups in Syria. Their expertise in military strategy and capacity to exploit existing networks provide them with a tactical edge in orchestrating assaults against the new regime. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating insurgency is the primary hurdle to solidifying control and maintaining national security.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research organization, has warned that Assad loyalists are likely to form some of the most effective insurgent cells in Syria. Their familiarity with military tactics and their ability to utilize established networks give them a strategic advantage in coordinating attacks against the new government. For interim President Sharaa, this growing insurgency represents the most significant obstacle to consolidating authority and ensuring national security.
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have exacerbated tensions between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional administration and the Alawite minority, a Shia branch that was the foundation of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who had privileges and influence under Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks since its downfall. Many now feel sidelined and targeted, despite Sharaa’s promises that his government will honor Syria’s varied religious groups.
Recent accounts of aggression toward Alawite communities have heightened these tensions. Activists have alleged that armed groups associated with the government have killed numerous male residents in Alawite regions, an allegation yet to be independently confirmed but has nevertheless incited anger. These occurrences could potentially push more Alawites toward joining insurgent factions, complicating the government’s attempts to stabilize the area.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
Future Economic and Diplomatic Hurdles
In addition to the pressing security challenges, Syria’s interim government is facing a severe economic crisis. Years of conflict have resulted in nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the nation continues to suffer under the heavy international sanctions placed during Assad’s tenure. Sharaa’s government has prioritized the removal of these sanctions, seeing it as vital for economic recovery and establishing legitimacy worldwide.
Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.
A Nation Fragmented
A country divided
Despite the fall of Assad, Syria remains a patchwork of competing factions and external influences. The transitional government’s control is far from absolute, with various groups holding sway over different parts of the country. These factions, often backed by foreign powers with competing interests, add another layer of complexity to Syria’s fragile political landscape.
The Path Forward
The road ahead
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marked a significant turning point in Syria’s history, but the country’s transition to peace and stability remains fraught with challenges. From the insurgent threat posed by Assad loyalists to the deep divisions among Syria’s religious and ethnic communities, the road ahead is uncertain. The interim government must navigate these obstacles while addressing the pressing needs of a population devastated by more than a decade of war.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
