Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, leader of the center-right National Coalition, won the second round of the Finnish presidential elections this Sunday against the liberal Green Party Pekka Haavisto. According to provisional data from the Ministry of Justice and with 99.7% of the ballots counted, Stubb won by a very narrow margin, with 51.6% of the vote, against 48.4% for Haavisto. Stubb greeted the results in a moderate tone: “It’s the greatest honor of my life. The task of being President of the Republic surpasses the person,” he said.
The vote marks a new era for Finland, which for decades has elected presidents to promote diplomacy, particularly with neighboring Russia, and has chosen not to join military alliances to calm tensions between Moscow and NATO. The Finns completely changed their foreign, security and defense policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and joined the Atlantic Alliance in April last year.
The Finnish head of state has some executive functions in the field of international and security policy, in coordination with the government in power, which is now a conservative and far-right coalition led by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, from the same party that Stubb . The president deals with issues related to non-EU countries, such as Russia, China or the United States. Furthermore, he is the supreme commander of the armed forces and represents Finland at the top of NATO.
Stubb, 55, was head of government between 2014 and 2015 and headed three ministries (European Affairs, Foreign Affairs and Economy). He is perceived by a large part of the citizenry as a cosmopolitan and fervent pro-European, and during the electoral campaign he distanced himself from the far right.
The new president will replace Sauli Niinisto, also from the National Coalition, who is retiring after completing two six-year terms in which he earned the nickname Putin’s whisperer for his close ties with the Russian leader, before becoming one of his fiercest critics. Niinisto’s successor will have a central role in shaping Finnish policy towards NATO.
Stubb and Haavisto were the candidates with the most experience in foreign and defense policy among the nine candidates in the first round of the January 28 elections. The former prime minister then won with 27.2% of the votes, ahead of the environmentalist with 25.8%. Finland’s far-right party, the second largest parliamentary force, was far from going to the second round. Its candidate, Jussi Halla-aho, president of the Eduskunta (Parliament), obtained 19% of the votes.
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Both candidates are strong supporters of Ukraine and have taken a tough stance towards Russia in their election campaigns. In an interview with Reuters last month, the leader of the National Coalition assured that there will be no Russian pillar in Finland’s foreign policy: “Politically there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with Russian political leaders and until they will stop the war in Ukraine.” Stubb favors deep cooperation with NATO, for example by allowing the transport of nuclear weapons across Finnish soil and permanently stationing some Alliance troops in Finland.
Russia, which shares a 1,340 kilometer border with Finland, has threatened Helsinki with retaliation over its NATO membership and a defense cooperation agreement signed with the United States in December. In addition to the numerous cyber attacks of which the Finnish authorities accuse the Kremlin, the Finnish government accuses the Russians of the arrival of hundreds of asylum seekers from the Middle East and the Horn of Africa and has kept the eight border posts closed since mid-December with the Neighbor.
Haavisto, former Foreign Minister in the Executive chaired by the social democrat Sanna Marin, between 2019 and 2023, is the historic leader of the Green League but on this occasion – it is the third time he has presented himself and has reached the second round – he he is presented as independent to broaden his electorate. 65 years old and openly gay, he was a diplomat at the UN and is known for his firmness in the defense of human rights. Haavisto, one of the architects of Finland’s rapid entry into NATO, defended the maintenance of the ban on having nuclear weapons on Finnish soil and considers a permanent deployment of troops from the Atlantic Alliance to be superfluous in the current security situation.
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